Who Did What Now?

There is no purpose of this blog. I can't even spell the word blog and the verb form 'blogging' makes me throw up, just a little, in my mouth. Go find something more interesting. Life is short... no no wait, come back!

Sunday, November 05, 2006

The Most Boring Class On Campus and High Stakes Poker


So every M T W Th and TGodIF I have to sit through an hour of statistics. This wouldn’t be so bad if I didn’t already have to take a statistics class earlier in my college years. My situation is also exasperated by the fact that I accidentally signed up for the B.A. version of the majors version of statistics (too late to drop it) and now have to take the B.S. version ( 2 quarters long I want to shoot myself).
And I was not about to change my degree to B.A., I would rather be republican then join those pussies. But that’s a different subject.

The only redeeming quality I have found for the class is its ability to fuel my (functional!!) addiction to poker. I’m in an innocuous and disappointing plateau in my skills, evening losses with gains over a month period of weekly games. But now I just discovered my new edge.
Now I know a little bit more about statistics, in head computations coupled with my ability to read opponents body language (brag brag brag) will give me just what I need in the game of skill and luck.
While reading a chapter I came across a passage which peaked my interest:
"p( two aces)= p(ace on first draw) X p(ace on second draw │ ace on first draw)
= (4/52)(3/51) ≈ .0045"
So for those of you skilled in the art of reading the most dull subject invented, and those good at cards might notice the translation: the odds of getting pocket Aces is .45%
So from there, let’s extrapolate.
Well that’s all well and good but I’m playing against other people. At a ten person table, the odds that no one is dealt pocket pairs are 95.5%. One person being dealt a pocket pair 4.32%. The odds that two people where dealt pocket pairs on the same hand are .08% and it gets less and less as you increase the number of pocket pairs dealt in a single hand.
The lesson:
If you got a set (three of a kind) on the flop and there are no straight or flush draws, even if it’s the lowest possible set, don’t fear the reaper. You are beat in LESS than .08% of the time ( I’m not calculating the odds of you hitting a set). This also goes the other way. If you are or aren’t playing a pocket pair, in LESS than 4.5 % of the time, a person will hit a set on the flop.
Maybe once I learn how to calculate the odds of hitting a set, I’ll bring that up. But right now I have NO idea how to do that.
Keep in mind, none of this takes into account the odds that someone will play low pocket pairs like some swans. Everyone hates swans (pocket twos), to quote the great Bill Watterson, getting pocket twos "is like winning ten cents in the lottery". *
Old English Teacher Ms. Thrower-Patterson: That’s taken out of context, *******. You can’t use that quote.
Me: Fuck you, you cross-eyed bitch!
What is it with old English teachers and me? I’ll stop hating now.
What was I talking about? Aw yes.. have your cat or dog spayed or neutered, while you gamble. Thank you and have a good night

2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Entertaining stuff. What did who now?

6:30 AM  
Blogger TroubleHelix said...

Yay! my first comment!
i'm sooo turned on right now

7:16 AM  

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